Giving equal weight to each of the 16 countries for which the model has data, its central estimate is that the rally is likely to stall but not reverse. It expects appreciation to slow to 3.4% this year, and to 0.7% by 2023. Much of this deceleration comes from America and Britain. However, because prices are currently soaring in those markets, the model projects them to climb a bit further before reaching a plateau.

Elsewhere, the model does expect price declines. It is most dubious on Spain, which faces a mix of deflation, high unemployment and stagnant incomes. The most likely scenario is that prices there eke out paltry gains in 2021 and then turn south. Sweden and Canada also have unemployment rates above 8%, and the model predicts they will start facing losses in 2023...

The Economist: Our house-price forecast expects the global rally to lose steam